A global-scale dataset of bat viral detection suggests that pregnancy reduces viral shedding.

Understanding viral infection dynamics in wildlife hosts can help forecast zoonotic pathogen spillover and human disease risk. Bats are particularly important reservoirs of zoonotic viruses, including some of major public health concern such as Nipah virus, Hendra virus, and SARS-related coronaviruses. Previous work has suggested that metapopulation dynamics, seasonal reproductive patterns, and other bat life history characteristics might explain temporal variation in spillover of bat-associated viruses into people. Here, we analyze viral dynamics in free-ranging bat hosts, leveraging a multi-year, global-scale viral detection dataset that spans eight viral families and 96 bat species from 14 countries. We fit hierarchical Bayesian models that explicitly control for important sources of variation, including geographic region, specimen type, and testing protocols, while estimating the influence of reproductive status on viral detection in female bats. Our models revealed that late pregnancy had a negative effect on viral shedding across multiple data subsets, while lactation had a weaker influence that was inconsistent across data subsets. These results are unusual for mammalian hosts, but given recent findings that bats may have high individual viral loads and population-level prevalence due to dampening of antiviral immunity, we propose that it would be evolutionarily advantageous for pregnancy to either not further reduce immunity or actually increase the immune response, reducing viral load, shedding, and risk of fetal infection. This novel hypothesis would be valuable to test given its potential to help monitor, predict, and manage viral spillover risk from bats.

Ecological characterization of 175 low-pathogenicity avian influenza viruses isolated from wild birds in Mongolia, 2009-2013 and 2016-2018.

BACKGROUND: Since 2005, highly pathogenic avian influenza A H5N1 viruses have spread from Asia worldwide, infecting poultry, humans and wild birds. Subsequently, global interest in avian influenza (AI) surveillance increased. OBJECTIVES: Mongolia presents an opportunity to study viruses in wild birds because the country has very low densities of domestic poultry and supports large concentrations of migratory water birds. METHODS: We conducted AI surveillance in Mongolia over two time periods, 2009-2013 and 2016-2018, utilizing environmental fecal sampling. Fresh fecal samples were collected from water bird congregation sites. Hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) subtypes of positive samples were identified through viral isolation or molecular assays, with pathogenicity determined by HA subtype or sequencing the HA cleavage site. RESULTS: A total of 10,222 samples were collected. Of these, 7,025 fecal samples were collected from 2009 to 2013, and 3,197 fecal samples were collected from 2016 to 2018. Testing revealed 175 (1.7%) positive samples for low-pathogenicity influenza A, including 118 samples from 2009 to 2013 (1.7%) and 57 samples from 2016 to 2018 (1.8%). HA and NA subtyping of all positives identified 11 subtypes of HA and nine subtypes of NA in 29 different combinations. Within periods, viruses were detected more frequently during the fall season than in the early summer. CONCLUSION: Mongolia's critical wild bird habitat is positioned as a crossroad of multiple migratory flyways. Our work demonstrates the feasibility of using an affordable environmental fecal sampling approach for AI surveillance and contributes to understanding the prevalence and ecology of low-pathogenicity avian influenza viruses in this important location, where birds from multiple flyways mix.

Characterizing the One Health workforce to promote interdisciplinary, multisectoral approaches in global health problem-solving.

BACKGROUND: In recognition of the interconnected nature of complex challenges such as COVID-19, a collaborative, multisectoral, and transdisciplinary approach, referred to as One Health, has been employed to address sustainable development and strengthen global health security. Although significant investments have been made to build global health capacity, characterization of the One Health is absent from the literature. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected and analyzed perspectives from students, graduates, workers, and employers in One Health through a multinational online survey across health disciplines and sectors. Respondents were recruited through professional networks. A total of 828 respondents from 66 countries participated, representing governmental and academic institutions and students, among others; 57% were female, and 56% had completed professional health degrees. Interpersonal communication, communication with non-scientific audiences, and the ability to work in transdisciplinary teams were valued in the workplace and were considered essential competencies to build an interdisciplinary health workforce. Employers indicated difficulty recruiting workers, while workers indicated limited availability of positions. Employers identified limited funding and ill-defined career pathways as prominent challenges for retaining One Health workers. CONCLUSIONS: Successful One Health workers use interpersonal skills and scientific knowledge to address complex health challenges. Aligning the definition of One Health will likely improve the matching of job seekers and employers. Encouraging the employment of the One Health approach for a diverse range of positions, even if they do not explicitly include "One Health" in the job title, and clarifying the expectations, roles and responsibilities within a transdisciplinary team will lead to building a stronger workforce. As One Health has evolved to address food insecurity, emerging diseases, and antimicrobial resistance, it holds promise for supporting an interdisciplinary global health workforce that can make substantial progress on Sustainable Development Goals and improve global health security for all.

One Health Surveillance Highlights Circulation of Viruses with Zoonotic Potential in Bats, Pigs, and Humans in Viet Nam.

A One Health cross-sectoral surveillance approach was implemented to screen biological samples from bats, pigs, and humans at high-risk interfaces for zoonotic viral spillover for five viral families with zoonotic potential in Viet Nam. Over 1600 animal and human samples from bat guano harvesting sites, natural bat roosts, and pig farming operations were tested for coronaviruses (CoVs), paramyxoviruses, influenza viruses, filoviruses and flaviviruses using consensus PCR assays. Human samples were also tested using immunoassays to detect antibodies against eight virus groups. Significant viral diversity, including CoVs closely related to ancestors of pig pathogens, was detected in bats roosting at the human-animal interfaces, illustrating the high risk for CoV spillover from bats to pigs in Viet Nam, where pig density is very high. Season and reproductive period were significantly associated with the detection of bat CoVs, with site-specific effects. Phylogeographic analysis indicated localized viral transmission among pig farms. Our limited human sampling did not detect any known zoonotic bat viruses in human communities living close to the bat cave and harvesting bat guano, but our serological assays showed possible previous exposure to Marburg virus-like (Filoviridae), Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus-like (Bunyaviridae) viruses and flaviviruses. Targeted and coordinated One Health surveillance helped uncover this viral pathogen emergence hotspot.

Simian homologues of human herpesviruses and implications for novel viral introduction to free-living mountain gorillas.

The endangered mountain gorilla (Gorilla beringei beringei) in Rwanda, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo is frequently in contact with humans through tourism, research activities, and illegal entry of people into protected gorilla habitat. Herpesviruses, which are ubiquitous in primates, have the potential to be shared in any setting where humans and gorillas share habitat. Based on serological findings and clinical observations of orofacial ulcerated lesions resembling herpetic lesions, an alpha-herpesvirus resembling human herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) has long been suspected to be present in human-habituated mountain gorillas in the wild. While the etiology of orofacial lesions in the wild has not been confirmed, HSV-1 has been suspected in captively-housed mountain gorillas and confirmed in a co-housed confiscated Grauer's gorilla (Gorilla beringei graueri). To better characterize herpesviruses infecting mountain gorillas and to determine the presence/absence of HSV-1 in the free-living population, we conducted a population-wide survey to test for the presence of orally shed herpesviruses. DNA was extracted from discarded chewed plants collected from 294 individuals from 26 groups, and samples were screened by polymerase chain reaction using pan-herpesvirus and HSV-1-specific assays. We found no evidence that human herpesviruses had infected free-ranging mountain gorillas. However, we found gorilla-specific homologs to human herpesviruses, including cytomegaloviruses (GbbCMV-1 and 2), a lymphocryptovirus (GbbLCV-1), and a new rhadinovirus (GbbRHV-1) with similar characteristics (i.e., timing of primary infection, shedding in multiple age groups, and potential modes of transmission) to their human counterparts, human cytomegalovirus, Epstein-Barr virus and Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus, respectively.

Seasonal shedding of coronavirus by straw-colored fruit bats at urban roosts in Africa.

The straw-colored fruit bat (Eidolon helvum) is a pteropodid whose conservation is crucial for maintaining functional connectivity of plant populations in tropical Africa. Land conversion has pushed this species to adapt to roosting in urban centers across its range. These colonies often host millions of individuals, creating intensive human-bat contact interfaces that could facilitate the spillover of coronaviruses shed by these bats. A better understanding of coronavirus dynamics in these roosts is needed to identify peak times of exposure risk in order to propose evidence-based management that supports safe human-bat coexistence, as well as the conservation of this chiropteran. We studied the temporal patterns of coronavirus shedding in E. helvum, by testing thousands of longitudinally-collected fecal samples from two spatially distant urban roosts in Ghana and Tanzania. Shedding of coronaviruses peaked during the second part of pup weaning in both roosts. Assuming that coronavirus shedding is directly related to spillover risk, our results indicate that exposure mitigation should target reducing contact between people and E. helvum roosts during the pup "weaning" period. This recommendation can be applied across the many highly-populated urban sites occupied by E. helvum across Africa.

One Health timeliness metrics to track and evaluate outbreak response reporting: A scoping review.

Background: As the global population soars, human behaviours are increasing the risk of epidemics. Objective performance evaluation of outbreak responses requires that metrics of timeliness, or speed in response time, be recorded and reported. We sought to evaluate how timeliness data are being conveyed for multisectoral outbreaks and make recommendations on how One Health metrics can be used to improve response success. Methods: We conducted a scoping review of outbreaks reported January 1, 2010- March 15, 2020, in organizational reports and peer-reviewed literature on PubMed and Embase databases. We tracked 11 outbreak milestones and calculated timeliness metrics, the median time in days, between the following: 1) Predict; 2) Prevent; 3) Start; 4) Detect; 5) Notify; 6) Verify; 7) Diagnostic; 8) Respond; 9) Communication; 10) End; and 11) After-Action Review. Findings: We identified 26783 outbreak reports, 1014 of which involved more than just the human health sector. Only six of the eleven milestones were mentioned in >50% of reports. The time between most milestones was on average shorter for outbreaks reporting both Predict (alert of a potential outbreak) and Prevent (response to predictive alert) events. Interpretation: Tracking progress in timeliness during outbreaks can focus efforts to prevent outbreaks from evolving into epidemics or pandemics. Response to predictive alerts demonstrated improved expediency in time to most milestones. We recommend the adoption of universally defined One Health outbreak milestones, including After Action Review, such that timeliness metrics can be used to assess outbreak response improvements over time. Funding: This study was made possible by the United States Agency for International Development's One Health Workforce-Next Generation Project (Cooperative Agreement 7200AA19CA00018).

Antibiotic resistance genes of public health importance in livestock and humans in an informal urban community in Nepal.

Efforts to mitigate the increasing emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) will benefit from a One Health perspective, as over half of animal antimicrobials are also considered medically important in humans, and AMR can be maintained in the environment. This is especially pertinent to low- and middle-income countries and in community settings, where an estimated 80% of all antibiotics are used. This study features AMR genes found among humans, animals, and water at an urban informal settlement in Nepal with intensifying livestock production. We sampled humans, chickens, ducks, swine, and water clustered by household, as well as rodents and shrews near dwellings, concurrently in time in July 2017 in southeastern Kathmandu along the Manohara river. Real-time qualitative PCR was performed to screen for 88 genes. Our results characterize the animal-human-environmental interfaces related to the occurrence of specific resistance genes (blaSHV-1 (SHV(238G240E) strain), QnrS, ermC, tetA, tetB, aacC2, aadA1) associated with antibiotics of global health importance that comprise several drug classes, including aminoglycosides, beta-lactams, tetracyclines, macrolides, and fluoroquinolones. By characterizing risk factors across AMR genes of public health importance, this research highlights potential transmission pathways for further investigation and provides prioritization of community-based prevention and intervention efforts for disrupting AMR transmission of critically important antibiotics used in both humans and animals in Nepal.

Classification of new morbillivirus and jeilongvirus sequences from bats sampled in Brazil and Malaysia.

As part of a broad One Health surveillance effort to detect novel viruses in wildlife and people, we report several paramyxovirus sequences sampled primarily from bats during 2013 and 2014 in Brazil and Malaysia, including seven from which we recovered full-length genomes. Of these, six represent the first full-length paramyxovirid genomes sequenced from the Americas, including two that are the first full-length bat morbillivirus genome sequences published to date. Our findings add to the vast number of viral sequences in public repositories, which have been increasing considerably in recent years due to the rising accessibility of metagenomics. Taxonomic classification of these sequences in the absence of phenotypic data has been a significant challenge, particularly in the subfamily Orthoparamyxovirinae, where the rate of discovery of novel sequences has been substantial. Using pairwise amino acid sequence classification (PAASC), we propose that five of these sequences belong to members of the genus Jeilongvirus and two belong to members of the genus Morbillivirus. We also highlight inconsistencies in the classification of Tupaia virus and Mòjiang virus using the same demarcation criteria and suggest reclassification of these viruses into new genera. Importantly, this study underscores the critical importance of sequence length in PAASC analysis as well as the importance of biological characteristics such as genome organization in the taxonomic classification of viral sequences.

Coronavirus and Paramyxovirus Shedding by Bats in a Cave and Buildings in Ethiopia.

Bats are important hosts of zoonotic viruses with pandemic potential, including filoviruses, MERS-Coronavirus (CoV), SARS-CoV -1, and likely SARS-CoV-2. Viral infection and transmission among wildlife are dependent on a combination of factors that include host ecology and immunology, life history traits, roosting habitats, biogeography, and external stressors. Between 2016 and 2018, four species of insectivorous bats from a readily accessed roadside cave and buildings in Ethiopia were sampled and tested for viruses using consensus PCR assays for five viral families/genera. Previously identified and novel coronaviruses and paramyxoviruses were identified in 99 of the 589 sampled bats. Bats sampled from the cave site were more likely to test positive for a CoV than bats sampled from buildings; viral shedding was more common in the wet season; and rectal swabs were the most common sample type to test positive. A previously undescribed alphacoronavirus was detected in two bat species from different taxonomic families, sampling interfaces, geographic locations, and years. These findings expand knowledge of the range and diversity of coronaviruses and paramyxoviruses in insectivorous bats in Ethiopia and reinforce that an improved understanding of viral diversity and species-specific shedding dynamics is important for designing informed zoonotic disease surveillance and spillover risk reduction efforts.

Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 Related Coronaviruses Circulating in Sunda pangolins (Manis javanica) Confiscated From the Illegal Wildlife Trade in Viet Nam.

Despite the discovery of several closely related viruses in bats, the direct evolutionary progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 has not yet been identified. In this study, we investigated potential animal sources of SARS-related coronaviruses using archived specimens from Sunda pangolins (Manis javanica) and Chinese pangolins (Manis pentadactyla) confiscated from the illegal wildlife trade, and from common palm civets (Paradoxurus hermaphroditus) raised on wildlife farms in Viet Nam. A total of 696 pangolin and civet specimens were screened for the presence of viral RNA from five zoonotic viral families and from Sarbecoviruses using primers specifically designed for pangolin coronaviruses. We also performed a curated data collection of media reports of wildlife confiscation events involving pangolins in Viet Nam between January 2016 and December 2020, to illustrate the global pangolin supply chain in the context of Viet Nam where the trade confiscated pangolins were sampled for this study. All specimens from pangolins and civets sampled along the wildlife supply chains between February 2017 and July 2018, in Viet Nam and tested with conventional PCR assays designed to detect flavivirus, paramyxovirus, filovirus, coronavirus, and orthomyxovirus RNA were negative. Civet samples were also negative for Sarbecoviruses, but 12 specimens from seven live pangolins confiscated in Hung Yen province, northern Viet Nam, in 2018 were positive for Sarbecoviruses. Our phylogenetic trees based on two fragments of the RdRp gene revealed that the Sarbecoviruses identified in these pangolins were closely related to pangolin coronaviruses detected in pangolins confiscated from the illegal wildlife trade in Yunnan and Guangxi provinces, China. Our curated data collection of media reports of wildlife confiscation events involving pangolins in Viet Nam between January 2016 and December 2020, reflected what is known about pangolin trafficking globally. Pangolins confiscated in Viet Nam were largely in transit, moving toward downstream consumers in China. Confiscations included pangolin scales sourced originally from Africa (and African species of pangolins), or pangolin carcasses and live pangolins native to Southeast Asia (predominately the Sunda pangolin) sourced from neighboring range countries and moving through Viet Nam toward provinces bordering China.

Surveillance for potentially zoonotic viruses in rodent and bat populations and behavioral risk in an agricultural settlement in Ghana.

BACKGROUND: In Ghana, the conversion of land to agriculture, especially across the vegetative belt has resulted in fragmented forest landscapes with increased interactions among humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. METHODS: We investigated viruses in bats and rodents, key reservoir hosts for zoonotic viral pathogens, in a small agricultural community in the vegetation belt of Ghana. We also administered questionnaires among the local community members to learn more about people's awareness and perceptions of zoonotic disease risks and the environmental factors and types of activities in which they engage that might influence pathogen transmission from wildlife. RESULTS: Our study detected the RNA from paramyxoviruses and coronaviruses in rodents and bats, including sequences from novel viruses with unknown zoonotic potential. Samples collected from Epomophorus gambianus bats were significantly more likely to be positive for coronavirus RNA during the rainy season, when higher numbers of young susceptible individuals are present in the population. Almost all community members who responded to the questionnaire reported contact with wildlife, especially bats, rodents, and non-human primates in and around their homes and in the agricultural fields. Over half of the respondents were not aware or did not perceive any zoonotic disease risks associated with close contact with animals, such as harvesting and processing animals for food. To address gaps in awareness and mitigation strategies for pathogen transmission risks, we organized community education campaigns using risk reduction and outreach tools focused around living safely with bats and rodents. CONCLUSIONS: These findings expand our knowledge of the viruses circulating in bats and rodents in Ghana and of the beliefs, perceptions, and practices that put community members at risk of zoonotic virus spillover through direct and indirect contact with bats and rodents. This study also highlights the importance of community engagement in research and interventions focused on mitigating risk and living safely with wildlife.

Evolution and expansion of the One Health approach to promote sustainable and resilient health and well-being: A call to action.

One Health is a transdisciplinary approach used to address complex concerns related to human, animal, plant, and ecosystem health. One Health frameworks and operational tools are available to support countries and communities, particularly for the prevention and control of zoonotic diseases and antimicrobial resistance and the protection of food safety. However, One Health has yet to be implemented in a manner that fully considers the complexities and interconnectedness of the diverse influences that have impacts at a larger system level. This lack of consideration can undermine the sustainability of any positive outcomes. To ensure the One Health approach can function effectively within the new global context of converging and escalating health, social, economic, and ecological crises, it must evolve and expand in three overlapping dimensions: (1) Scope: the partners, knowledge, and knowledge systems included, (2) Approach: the techniques, methodologies, and scholarship considered, and (3) Worldview inclusivity: the interweaving of other worldviews together with the mainstream scientific worldview that currently predominates. Diverse partners and knowledge from outside the mainstream health and scientific sectors, including Indigenous peoples and representatives of local communities, and traditionally generated knowledge, must be included. These systems of knowledge can then be braided together with mainstream science to comprise a holistic framework for decision-making. Scholarship and methodologies being applied in other fields and contexts to solve complex challenges and manage uncertainty, such as collaborative governance, social-ecologic systems theory, and complexity science, must be recognized and incorporated. The spectrum of considered worldviews must also expand to authentically integrate the expanded scope and approach into action and sustainable impact. By increasing community and social engagement and by recognizing and entwining different worldviews, the plurality of disciplines, and traditional and scientific ways of knowing to address community concerns in the contexts in which they exist, we can ensure that One Health remains effective and true to its paradigm in our rapidly changing and complex world.

Socializing One Health: an innovative strategy to investigate social and behavioral risks of emerging viral threats.

In an effort to strengthen global capacity to prevent, detect, and control infectious diseases in animals and people, the United States Agency for International Development's (USAID) Emerging Pandemic Threats (EPT) PREDICT project funded development of regional, national, and local One Health capacities for early disease detection, rapid response, disease control, and risk reduction. From the outset, the EPT approach was inclusive of social science research methods designed to understand the contexts and behaviors of communities living and working at human-animal-environment interfaces considered high-risk for virus emergence. Using qualitative and quantitative approaches, PREDICT behavioral research aimed to identify and assess a range of socio-cultural behaviors that could be influential in zoonotic disease emergence, amplification, and transmission. This broad approach to behavioral risk characterization enabled us to identify and characterize human activities that could be linked to the transmission dynamics of new and emerging viruses. This paper provides a discussion of implementation of a social science approach within a zoonotic surveillance framework. We conducted in-depth ethnographic interviews and focus groups to better understand the individual- and community-level knowledge, attitudes, and practices that potentially put participants at risk for zoonotic disease transmission from the animals they live and work with, across 6 interface domains. When we asked highly-exposed individuals (ie. bushmeat hunters, wildlife or guano farmers) about the risk they perceived in their occupational activities, most did not perceive it to be risky, whether because it was normalized by years (or generations) of doing such an activity, or due to lack of information about potential risks. Integrating the social sciences allows investigations of the specific human activities that are hypothesized to drive disease emergence, amplification, and transmission, in order to better substantiate behavioral disease drivers, along with the social dimensions of infection and transmission dynamics. Understanding these dynamics is critical to achieving health security--the protection from threats to health-- which requires investments in both collective and individual health security. Involving behavioral sciences into zoonotic disease surveillance allowed us to push toward fuller community integration and engagement and toward dialogue and implementation of recommendations for disease prevention and improved health security.

Applying a One Health Approach in Global Health and Medicine: Enhancing Involvement of Medical Schools and Global Health Centers.

Background: Multidisciplinary and multisectoral approaches such as One Health and related concepts (e.g., Planetary Health, EcoHealth) offer opportunities for synergistic expertise to address complex health threats. The connections between humans, animals, and the environment necessitate collaboration among sectors to comprehensively understand and reduce risks and consequences on health and wellbeing. One Health approaches are increasingly emphasized for national and international plans and strategies related to zoonotic diseases, food safety, antimicrobial resistance, and climate change, but to date, the possible applications in clinical practice and benefits impacting human health are largely missing. Methods: In 2018 the "Application of the One Health Approach to Global Health Centers" conference held at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine convened experts involved in One Health policy and practice. The conference examined issues relevant to One Health approaches, sharing examples of challenges and successes to guide application to medical school curricula and clinical practice for human health. This paper presents a synthesis of conference proceedings, framed around objectives identified from presentations and audience feedback. Findings and Recommendations: The following objectives provide opportunities for One Health involvement and benefits for medical schools and global health centers by: 1) Improving One Health resource sharing in global health and medical education; 2) Creating pathways for information flow in clinical medicine and global health practice; 3) Developing innovative partnerships for improved health sector outcomes; and 4) Informing and empowering health through public outreach. These objectives can leverage existing resources to deliver value to additional settings and stakeholders through resource efficiency, more holistic and effective service delivery, and greater ability to manage determinants of poor health status. We encourage medical and global health educators, practitioners, and students to explore entry points where One Health can add value to their work from local to global scale.

Plant health and its effects on food safety and security in a One Health framework: four case studies.

Although healthy plants are vital to human and animal health, plant health is often overlooked in the One Health literature. Plants provide over 80% of the food consumed by humans and are the primary source of nutrition for livestock. However, plant diseases and pests often threaten the availability and safety of plants for human and animal consumption. Global yield losses of important staple crops can range up to 30% and hundreds of billions of dollars in lost food production. To demonstrate the complex interrelationships between plants and public health, we present four case studies on plant health issues directly tied to food safety and/or security, and how a One Health approach influences the perception and mitigation of these issues. Plant pathogens affect food availability and consequently food security through reductions in yield and plant mortality as shown through the first case study of banana Xanthomonas wilt in East and Central Africa. Case studies 2, 3 and 4 highlight ways in which the safety of plant-based foods can also be compromised. Case study 2 describes the role of mycotoxin-producing plant-colonizing fungi in human and animal disease and examines lessons learned from outbreaks of aflatoxicosis in Kenya. Plants may also serve as vectors of human pathogens as seen in case study 3, with an example of Escherichia coli (E. coli) contamination of lettuce in North America. Finally, case study 4 focuses on the use of pesticides in Suriname, a complex issue intimately tied to food security though protection of crops from diseases and pests, while also a food safety issue through misuse. These cases from around the world in low to high income countries point to the need for interdisciplinary teams to solve complex plant health problems. Through these case studies, we examine challenges and opportunities moving forward for mitigating negative public health consequences and ensuring health equity. Advances in surveillance technology and functional and streamlined workflow, from data collection, analyses, risk assessment, reporting, and information sharing are needed to improve the response to emergence and spread of plant-related pathogens and pests. Our case studies point to the importance of collaboration in responses to plant health issues that may become public health emergencies and the value of the One Health approach in ensuring food safety and food security for the global population.

Ranking the risk of animal-to-human spillover for newly discovered viruses.

The death toll and economic loss resulting from the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic are stark reminders that we are vulnerable to zoonotic viral threats. Strategies are needed to identify and characterize animal viruses that pose the greatest risk of spillover and spread in humans and inform public health interventions. Using expert opinion and scientific evidence, we identified host, viral, and environmental risk factors contributing to zoonotic virus spillover and spread in humans. We then developed a risk ranking framework and interactive web tool, SpillOver, that estimates a risk score for wildlife-origin viruses, creating a comparative risk assessment of viruses with uncharacterized zoonotic spillover potential alongside those already known to be zoonotic. Using data from testing 509,721 samples from 74,635 animals as part of a virus discovery project and public records of virus detections around the world, we ranked the spillover potential of 887 wildlife viruses. Validating the risk assessment, the top 12 were known zoonotic viruses, including SARS-CoV-2. Several newly detected wildlife viruses ranked higher than known zoonotic viruses. Using a scientifically informed process, we capitalized on the recent wealth of virus discovery data to systematically identify and prioritize targets for investigation. The publicly accessible SpillOver platform can be used by policy makers and health scientists to inform research and public health interventions for prevention and rapid control of disease outbreaks. SpillOver is a living, interactive database that can be refined over time to continue to improve the quality and public availability of information on viral threats to human health.

Fine scale infectious disease modeling using satellite-derived data.

Innovative tools for modeling infectious agents are essential for better understanding disease spread given the inherent complexity of changing and interacting ecological, environmental, and demographic factors. We leveraged fine-scale satellite data on urban areas to build a road-connected geospatial network upon which to model disease spread. This model was tested by simulating the spread of the 2009 pandemic influenza in Rwanda and also used to determine the effects of vaccination regimens on outbreak spread and impact. Our results were comparable to data collected during the actual pandemic in Rwanda, determining the initial places affected after outbreak introduction in Kigali. They also highlighted the effectiveness of preventing outbreaks by targeting mitigation efforts at points of outbreak origin. This modeling approach can be valuable for planning and control purposes in real-time disease situations, providing helpful baseline scenarios during initial phases of outbreaks, and can be applied to other infectious diseases where high population mobility promotes rapid disease propagation.